Who’s on track to raise the bat?

April 24, 2019May 21, 2019 Robert Sim

I enjoyed analysing the stats for the last story so much that I decided to do one that was more relevant to all CEO Coaches, not just those in supporters. This week we look at which players are currently performing sufficiently to hit the ton. To do this we will look at three methods, all of which have merit, none of which are perfect (similar to my squad selection).

1. Percentage of season complete

Simple 6 rounds in, 25 rounds in total and each team gets one bye. Based on these simply facts we will gross up the current scores by the remaining 18 rounds for the player. Obviously this is a limited measure and would not take into account current missed games or potentially future missed games as we will assume they play all remaining games for the season. Where a players has played all games this season it will be the same score as method 1.

2. Current game average

Again simple, players currently averages X and we will project this out by remaining games assuming they lace up for all remaining available games (18).

Where a players has played all games this season it will be the same score as method 1.

3. Performance trend from 2018

Slightly more complex and confusing in that this will look at the players performance in 2018 and how they were tracking as at the end of Round 6 compared to where they landed.

We will then apply this to the current 2019 performance. In theory this should allow for players who notoriously start slow (we are looking at you Milf!) and also those who may miss known games for origin (assuming incumbency) where we know average will not give an accurate total. This does however create crazy results where players missed the start of the 2018 season and came good late such as Daniel Tupou who under this method is on track for 795 points! Quick pick him up!

The following table shows players that are on track via one of the methods above, for the purpose of relevancy we have sorted by method 1.

Player	2018 Total Pts	2019 up to R6 Pts	1 – % Season	2 – Game Average	3 – Last Season
Damien Cook	218	70	280	280	263
Sam Burgess	92	50	200	200	288
Roger Tuivasa-Sheck	93	48	192	192	159
Clinton Gutherson	70	47	188	188	–
Cody Walker	112	46	184	184	156
John Bateman	–	43	172	172	–
James Tedesco	130	41	164	164	222
Robbie Farah	68	40	160	160	–
Reed Mahoney	17	38	152	152	–
Andrew McCullough	112	38	152	152	97
Josh McGuire	70	38	152	152	83
Cameron McInnes	147	37	148	148	302
Corey Oates	121	37	148	148	249
Cameron Smith	94	37	148	148	166
James Fisher-Harris	64	37	148	148	158
Kenny Bromwich	23	37	148	148	106
Cameron Murray	58	34	136	136	90
Aiden Tolman	64	32	128	128	512
Gavin Cooper	114	32	128	128	281
Michael Jennings	50	32	128	147	229
Josh Dugan	55	32	128	128	176
Blake Ferguson	174	32	128	147	155
Daly Cherry-Evans	99	32	128	128	132
Jake Trbojevic	156	32	128	128	125
Paul Vaughan	76	32	128	128	106
Andrew Fifita	119	31	124	124	137
Tohu Harris	68	31	124	124	64
Daniel Tupou	53	30	120	120	795
Boyd Cordner	81	30	120	120	152
Latrell Mitchell	107	30	120	120	134
David Klemmer	90	30	120	120	123
Jack Bird	5	30	120	120	30
Campbell Graham	43	29	116	116	–
Jordan Pereira	16	29	116	116	–
James Tamou	38	29	116	116	100
Kalyn Ponga	85	29	116	116	75
Ben Hunt	84	29	116	116	74
Ryan Matterson	66	29	116	116	52
Joseph Leilua	110	28	112	112	134
Michael Morgan	38	28	112	112	59
Jai Arrow	93	27	108	108	81
Luke Keary	79	27	108	108	67
Josh Hodgson	62	26	104	104	–
Shaun Lane	85	26	104	104	276
Martin Taupau	92	26	104	104	171
Reagan Campbell-Gillard	46	26	104	104	150
Elliott Whitehead	94	26	104	104	81
Jahrome Hughes	38	25	100	100	–
Mitchell Moses	48	25	100	100	400
Brad Takairangi	29	25	100	100	242
Michael Chee-Kam	57	25	100	100	238
Chad Townsend	62	25	100	100	119
Corey Norman	69	25	100	100	115
Angus Crichton	118	25	100	100	95
Tom Trbojevic	151	25	100	250	92
Tim Lafai	66	25	100	100	63
Josh Morris	73	25	100	100	59
Matt Gillett	20	25	100	100	25
Jordan McLean	33	24	96	96	132
Alex Twal	39	24	96	96	117
Dale Finucane	46	24	96	96	110
Jared Waerea-Hargreaves	58	24	96	132	87
Mitchell Aubusson	28	23	92	92	161
Jazz Tevaga	91	23	92	92	150
Felise Kaufusi	80	22	88	88	352
Mitchell Barnett	85	22	88	88	208
Nick Cotric	71	22	88	88	174
Anthony Don	89	22	88	101	109
Tevita Pangai Junior	58	21	84	116	244
Edrick Lee	66	21	84	84	139
Hymel Hunt	51	20	80	80	113
Mitch Rein	65	19	76	105	–
Tyrone Roberts	–	19	76	105	–
Josh Papalii	103	19	76	76	280
William Hopoate	86	19	76	76	149
Kodi Nikorima	88	19	76	76	139
Addin Fonua-Blake	36	19	76	105	40
Joe Ofahengaue	71	18	72	72	639
Adam Reynolds	55	18	72	72	198
Te Maire Martin	33	18	72	72	198
Tyrone Peachey	86	18	72	72	111
Nathan Cleary	65	18	72	72	106
Justin O’Neill	38	18	72	126	98
Payne Haas	0	16	64	160	–
Isaiah Papalii	77	16	64	74	308
Will Chambers	49	16	64	64	112
Jesse Ramien	83	15	60	60	156
Sione Mata’utia	60	15	60	83	100
Tariq Sims	76	13	52	52	124
Sosaia Feki	45	12	48	48	108
Jason Taumalolo	132	10	40	100	57
Jake Friend	104	10	40	100	55
Sione Katoa	42	8	32	37	112
Kurt Mann	25	4	16	22	100

So who scored 100 last year but are looking like they need to lower their bat and hit the showers?

Player	2018 Total Pts	2019 up to R6 Pts	1 – % Season	2 – Game Average	3 – Last Season
Josh Addo-Carr	106	19	76	87	96
Ryan James	143	16	64	64	82
Isaah Yeo	102	13	52	60	51
Matt Eisenhuth	103	12	48	84	43
David Fusitua	120	11	44	44	31
Matt Dufty	104	9	36	41	22
Aidan Guerra	114	8	32	37	28
Robert Jennings	116	4	16	16	15

So what does this mean for the future of the Dream Team, lets look at each team for each scenario:

1. Percentage of season complete

Position	Score
Fullback	RTS – 192
Winger	Corey Oates – 148
Centre	Michael Jennings – 128
Centre	Josh Dugan -128
Winger	Blake Ferguson – 128
Halfback	Daly Cherry-Evans – 128
5/8	Clinton Gutherson – 188
Prop	Sam Burgess – 200
Hooker	The Messiah (aka Cook) – 280
Prop	Josh McGuire – 152
Second Row	John Bateman – 172
Second Row	James Fisher-Harris – 148
Lock	Kenny Bromwich – 148
Bench 1	Cody Walker – 184
Bench 2	James Tedesco – 164
Bench 3	Robbie Farah – 160
Bench 4	Andrew McCullough -152

2. Current game average

Position	Score
Fullback	Tom Trbojevic – 250
Winger	Corey Oates – 148
Centre	Michael Jennings – 147
Centre	Josh Dugan – 128
Winger	Blake Ferguson – 147
Halfback	Daly Cherry-Evans – 128
5/8	Clinton Gutherson – 188
Prop	Sam Burgess – 200
Hooker	The messiah (aka cook) – 280
Prop	Payne Haas – 152
Second Row	John Bateman – 172
Second Row	Gavin Cooper – 128
Lock	Josh McGuire – 152
Bench 1	Roger Tuivasa-Sheck – 192
Bench 2	Cody Walker – 184
Bench 3	James Tedesco – 164
Bench 4	Robbie Farah – 160

3. Performance trend from 2018

Position	Score
Fullback	James Tedesco – 222
Winger	Daniel Tupou – 795
Centre	Brad Takairangi – 242
Centre	Michael Jennings – 229
Winger	Corey Oates – 249
Halfback	Mitchell Moses – 400
5/8	Te Maire Martin – 198
Prop	Joe Ofahengaue – 639
Hooker	Damien Cook – 263
Prop	Aiden Tolman – 512
Second Row	Felise Kaufusi – 352
Second Row	Isaiah Papali’i – 308
Lock	Sam Burgess – 288
Bench 1	Gavin Cooper – 281
Bench 2	Josh Papalii – 280
Bench 3	Shaun Lane – 276
Bench 4	TPJ – 244

If you believe in the mathematics and any of the lessor known boys are still available in the spud pool they might be worth a gamble…but if it was me I wouldn’t be looking at method #3 unless you are desperate.

Good luck, enjoy your football and carn you mighty Illawarra Steelers!

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Robert Sim

AKA Coach Costanza. Often found at the bottom of the ladder but will trade to the death and never give up. “It’s not whether you win or lose just don’t get the spoon.”

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