Stupid Is, as Stupid Drafts
It takes a big man to admit that he’s wrong – and anyone who has ever met me can testify as to my imposing stature. So here it is, Round 16 and I admit – I messed up hard.
How hard? I’m not entirely certain. Somehow I am sitting outright third in our league, and should be a lock for a finals berth, but I have essentially played all year without halves, and without a kicker.
Our league is a legacy competition, where at the end of round 20, our squads are locked and we cannot make any further changes to our 25. This is because at the beginning of each season, we get to keep 10 players from the previous year’s 25. What results, is that players become ‘club’ players and very recognisable as being a part of your team. Some players have only ever known one fantasy squad. Nathan Hindmarsh, for example, spend 12 seasons with the one team in our league – but when it’s someone as prolific a workhorse as Hindy, who’d leave him out of their Keeper 10.
I drafted Justin Hodges way back in 2001, and stuck by him until the start of last season. As much as I wanted to keep him in my team (for sentimental reasons – I am not a Broncos or Roosters fan FYI) I just couldn’t justify his origin absences, sporadic form, and injury prone ways any longer. So he got the axe.
One of my proudest moments (and one of the earliest signs of my foresight) was when I kept the Dragon’s Reece Simmonds in my Keeper 10 for the 2004 season and he scored 14 tries (56 points in 23 games) – who I then cut the following season.
I was decried as an idiot for my decision, and Simmonds was then taken as the second pick overall in the 2005 Draft. That year he played 5 games and scored 0 points. Score one for the Crystal Ballboy!
Workhorse machines are a common sight throughout our league’s Keeper 10s, and so are goal kickers. Week in, week out, a workhorse machine will tackle the house down, and hit the ball up again and again, guaranteeing your team points. Kickers are almost as reliable. You can usually count on your goal kicker for one or two conversions a game (unless they play for Cronulla!)
Last season, I had Gareth Widdop, Tyrone Roberts, and Jamie Soward (who up until last season had served me well.) Soward pissed off to the UK mid season and screwed me over. Widdop, who was brought in to replace Soward, was named as the Dragons’ top kicker, and given an NRLCEO kicking value of 6. Roberts was given a 5, as it was unclear as to wether he or Kurt Gidley would be the first choice kicker.
At the start of this year, I had a choice to make; Widdop who was going to play for a Steve Price coached team tipped to severely underperform, or Roberts who plays for the great Wayne Bennett, and for a team expected to be a serious top 8 contender. In addition, because everyone else in my league has a kicker valued 6 or higher, I could afford to wait until the very last round to draft Gidley who is also an occasional workhorse.
No brainer, right?
Wrong. So very wrong.
No one expected the Dragons to kick so much arse early in the season. I knew Widdop was pretty handy with the boot, but I’m not sure anyone knew he was as prolific as he was in the first few rounds. And no one could have known the shitstorm that was going to descend on Nathan Tinkler and the fallout it would have for the Knights.
To make matters worse, each week has seemed to be a crapshoot as to wether Roberts or Gidley would be taking the shots at goal, leaving my team goalless on several occasions this year as a result of me backing the wrong bloke.
Before our league joined NRLCEO, the system we played under allowed us to nominate a 1st String Kicker, AND a 2nd String Kicker. Which in my case would allow me to name Gidley as my 1st choice and Roberts as my 2nd. If Gidley kicked, I’d get his goal points. If Gidley DID NOT kick, and Roberts did, I’d get Roberts’ points. BUT, if Gidley kicked one goal, and Roberts kicked seven, I’d only get the 2 points Gidley (as my nominated 1st choice) scored.
For a while now, I’ve thought that NRLCEO could implement a similar system for players ranked 5 or below. Don’t ask me HOW they can implement it – I don’t have the technical nous, but it is a thought that has plagued me on several occasions.
So this week, Roberts was named on the bench, and Gidley in the halves and it was the final straw. I kept both around partially because I assumed/hoped Newcastle would eventually come good, and partially because Kurt is usually good for a workhorse try.
In the immortal words of Kenny Rogers, ‘You gotta know when to hold ‘em, know when to fold ‘em, know when to walk away, and know when to run.’ Unfortunately, I should’ve folded and run weeks ago.
So I bit the bullet and cut them both. Both, because I cant just cut one 5 and recruit another kicker worth (at least) 6. So here I was, back to square one, about to swap my kicker for the guy I should’ve kept – welcome back Widdop.
But lo and behold! Pat Richards is still available in our league.
Pat F*cking Richards! Pat “Mr Currently Top Point Scorer in the NRL” Richards. Some how Pat Richards was passed over for 16 rounds by all 12 in our competition.
Another no brainer right? Wrong.
I currently have wingers coming out the wazoo. Sisa Waqa, Young Tounamapeia, Reece Robinson, Mitch Brown, Dan Toupou, AND Jonathan Wright.
So Widdop, right?
Remember how I said I’ve played all year without halves?
It’s kind of true. I’ve had Roberts, but he’s barely scored me any points, I don’t think I’ve ever played Gidley in the #7, and I dropped Ray Thompson weeks ago due to underperformance. And I completely forgot to draft a five-eight. I’ve had to resort to guys like Jack Littlejohn and Fa’amanu Brown on a week to week basis.
But no, no Widdop. It was too hard not to go with the NRL’s leading pointscorer.
Now to trade a winger for a half…
ROUND 16
SEA EAGLES v ROOSTERS
This is a 1st v 4th clash between Sydney’s glamour clubs, where I see plenty of points on offer. Both backlines are highly capable of getting across the stripe, both sets of halves have very tidy kicking games, and both packs are mobile and menacing.
I would be inclined to tip the Roosters in this one, because as closely matched as I believe these two teams are, I think the Chooks have the edge in the forwards. However, the Origin period has been good to Manly, and being at Brookvale, it will be just enough to get them the two points.
I foresee this being a 22-16 point type match, which means 3 or 4 goals for each team, and about as many tries. Missing Jennings will hurt the Roosters a little, but not entirely. Their forwards will be the ones most likely to get the workhorse points in this game too. Hiku and Tafua are my bets for most probably point scorers.
BRONCOS v SHARKS
It has been widely publicised that Cronulla have been scoreless in their last three matches, and it’s not hard to see that trend continuing for a fourth.
Luckily for the Sharks, they are up against a Brisbane team who despite sitting in 6th, have played a little up and down over the last month or so. Unfortunately, at the moment, the Sharks are in more disarray than the porta-loos at a chilli cook off. This should be a 42-8 win to the Queenslanders.
If Brisbane ever had a game to get back into some form, its this one. Time to name Bronco backs, and Cronulla forwards.
TIGERS v RAIDERS
If the Tigers are serious top 8 contenders this year, they HAVE to win this game. If Ricky Stuart is going to prove that he can actually coach, the Raiders HAVE to win this one too.
Unfortunately for Rick, I don’t think he has the players at his disposal capable of showing his coaching abilities. Worse still, it seems like he is having a VERY tough time attracting quality players to the ACT. A poor tradesman always blames his tools, and unfortunately, the Raiders have a few tools playing for them.
The Canberra backline is young and inexperienced, and at the moment are pretty ineffective. If they can all stick together, in one or two years time, they could be highly formidable, but not right now.
With Robbie Farrah back in the Tigers pack, he should be enough to get them home. They really lack direction when he’s missing. James Tedesco should also be out to have a big game against the team he backed out of a deal with. And for the first time this year, I get to say “Come on Patty Richards!”
NORTH v SOUTH
If this match was played in Sydney, you’d be an idiot not to tip the third placed Rabbits side to beat the eleventh placed Cowboys. But because this is in Townsville, it’s not so simple.
Since round 4, the Cowboys have won ALL their home games, and lost ALL their away matches. So going by this trend, put your house on the men from up North.
North Queensland will have to be on their game to get the win this week as they go up against the team with the NRL’s second best attack, and best defence. JT is back to his pre-Lockyer retirement position of halfback, so I wonder what effect that will have. Brent Tate’s absence leave a bit of a hole in the backline, and I fear that that will be enough to get the Bunnies the win.
The Crystal Steeden tells me that the Rabbits pack will roll over the top of the Cowboys and lay the path for their backs to score often.
WARRIORS v PANTHERS
Nathan Hindmarsh last night made the bold prediction that the Warriors will make the top 4. I can’t say that I agree with him – yet. If they are to be more seriously considered, they will have to beat the Panthers in Auckland.
I, however, have used my wisdom and insight to foresee that Penrith are a top 4 team this year, and that they should win this match if they are to prove me right.
Penrith are a bit of a rag-tag team of young unknowns and older misfits, that somehow work well together like in films such as Major League, The Longest Yard, and The Mighty Ducks.
Ivan Clearly returns to New Zealand at the helm of the opposition, keen to prove that he has bettered his lot, and his side should prove the more successful.
This is a game that Peter Wallace will have to step up in to lead his team around the park. I predict that Tyrone Peachy will have a big match this weekend so play him if he’s in your squad.
EELS v KNIGHTS
Murphy’s Law states that “Anything that can go wrong, will go wrong.” So with that being said, expect Kurt Gidley and Tyrone Roberts to have the greatest game of their season this weekend!
Seriously, screw those guys.
Parramatta lost to Melbourne, and Chris “How Much are They Paying You” Sandow, really needs to atone for that loss. Not that it was entirely his fault, but teams look to their leaders to set the tone. Which also means Jarryd “Parra Depends On Me” Hayne will also have to put in a big game this week.
I believe Hayne can turn it on, and get back into his Origin winning form. Joseph “Joey”/”BJ” Leilua is back in the Knights squad after a lengthy absence. At the start of the season, I predicted he’d be amongst the NRLs top try scorers. He only needs to get 14 to catch up. Unfortunately for him, the man leading the tally, Semi Radradra, will be lined up in front of him this weekend.
Expect Eels newbie, Isaac De Gois to have a HUGE game for his new club, and that the Knights (who will be running out in the High-Vis kit that makes them look like Council workers) will be playing like a bunch of blokes standing around on the side of the road bludging.
DRAGONS v STORM
Remember when these two played earlier this year, and the Storm powered home in the dying stages to snatch victory from the Red V? Yeah, me too. Melbourne screwed me out of winning a bet I placed for the Dragons to upset the Storm. It was paying a motza too. Bastards.
St George Illawarra will be out for revenge, and hopefully for the Dragon Army, Benji will be out to prove his worth as a signing – something that he has failed to do thus far.
Looking into the Crystal Steeden, I see that Trent Merrin will be up for a big match, and there should be at least 3 workhorse tries come out of the Storm forwards.
The Dragons tries will come from their playmakers putting big guys through the line, and the Storm through their centres.
I fear Melbourne has become what the Broncos used to, be during (and after) the Origin period – very shaky, and highly unpredictable. Luckily for me, I have the power of foresight, and I predict that the Dragons will get their revenge in a very tightly fought, and very chilly Monday night encounter.
The Crystal Ballboy
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